The 2026 United States Congress elections, from the June primaries to Election Day on Nov. 3, told as two parallel lines: Democrats and Republicans. Primary upsets, debates, rallies, polls and fundraising records, sparse in early summer and day by day in the final weeks, each with its sources. The facts are reported straight; the commentary is written in the manner of Jon Stewart and spares neither party. Images: Wikimedia Commons. Results added through Nov. 7, 2026.
Hinson Wins in Iowa; Trump's Pick for Governor Loses
Rep. Ashley Hinson won Iowa's Republican Senate primary on June 2, beating Jim Carlin, and became the favorite for the open seat. On the same ballot, businessman Zach Lahn won the Republican nomination for governor over Rep. Randy Feenstra, whom President Trump had endorsed, according to an AP race call. A sitting congressman with the president's endorsement lost a primary to a businessman. In Washington that is called an outlier. In Iowa, this year, it was called Tuesday.
Iowa Democrats Nominate a Paralympian for Senate
Iowa Democrats chose state Rep. Josh Turek as their Senate nominee on June 2, over state Sen. Zach Wahls. Turek, a two-time Paralympic champion in wheelchair basketball from the state's western district, will face Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat Joni Ernst is leaving. President Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, and Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats, which puts Iowa on their list whether Iowa asked or not. The party's theory is that tariffs will turn farm country against the president. It is a bold plan, and it rests on soybean prices, which is not usually where Senate majorities come from.
Platner Wins Maine's Senate Primary Despite the Scandals
Graham Platner, a progressive first-time candidate, won Maine's Democratic Senate primary on June 9 with about 72% of the vote, setting up a race against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Gov. Janet Mills, the candidate Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had first backed, had suspended her campaign weeks earlier. Platner won after weeks of headlines about his past and used his speech in Blue Hill to turn the conversation toward Collins and the fall. Schumer's recruit left before the voters could reject her, which is one way to keep a perfect record. Platner told the crowd it was time to look ahead to November. Looking ahead turned out to be the hard part.
Nancy Mace Misses the Runoff for South Carolina Governor
Rep. Nancy Mace finished outside the top two in South Carolina's Republican primary for governor on June 9. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, endorsed by President Trump, advanced to a June 23 runoff against Attorney General Alan Wilson. Mace had helped push for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, which strained her ties with the president. Trump also endorsed Sen. Lindsey Graham, who won his primary for a fifth term. The lesson for Republican members of Congress was received loud and clear. You can cross the president, and you can run for governor. Just not in the same year.
Mike Collins Wins Georgia Runoff to Take On Ossoff
Rep. Mike Collins won Georgia's Republican Senate runoff on June 16 with 56% over former football coach Derek Dooley, days after President Trump endorsed him. Trump had complained that Dooley conceded Joe Biden was legitimately elected. Collins left the primary with $2.1 million in his campaign account. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff had nearly $43 million. That is a twenty-to-one cash gap. Republicans will tell you money does not matter, right up until October, when it turns out to buy most of the television in Atlanta.
Trump Endorses Both Candidates, and One of Them Wins
Attorney General Alan Wilson beat Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in South Carolina's Republican runoff for governor on June 23. President Trump had endorsed only Evette until the Friday before the runoff, when he added Wilson to his list, according to AP. Evette had finished narrowly ahead in the June 9 primary; by the time AP called the race, Wilson led by double digits in 21 of the 23 counties reporting. Endorsing both candidates in a two-person race is the political version of betting on red and black. Technically you cannot lose. Technically you have not won anything either.
A Mamdani Ally Ousts Rep. Dan Goldman in New York
Former New York City comptroller Brad Lander defeated Rep. Daniel Goldman in the Democratic primary for New York's 10th District on June 23, with endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders. In the 7th District, Claire Valdez beat Antonio Reynoso, Julie Won and Vichal Kumar. Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost renomination in the 13th. Goldman had the incumbency. Lander had the mayor. In New York City in June 2026 the mayor won, which is not a sentence anyone expected to write about a New York mayor.
Julia Letlow Wins Louisiana's Senate Runoff
Rep. Julia Letlow won Louisiana's Republican Senate runoff on June 27 over John Fleming, in a runoff that did not include the sitting senator, Bill Cassidy. Democrats chose Jamie Davis in their own runoff the same day. Cassidy voted in 2021 to convict Donald Trump at his impeachment trial. Five years later the race for his seat came down to two other Republicans. Louisiana has a long memory, and the president has a longer one.
Trump Announces a Republican Midterm Convention
President Trump announced on June 30 that Republicans would hold a convention in Dallas in September, ahead of the midterms, something the party had never done. Democrats said the event would help them tie Republican House and Senate candidates to a president whose approval rating was underwater. Most presidents facing a midterm try to keep their name off the ballot. This one is renting an arena to put it back on.
A 29-Year-Old Democratic Socialist Unseats Diana DeGette
Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old lawyer and democratic socialist, defeated 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary for Colorado's Denver-based 1st District on June 30, leading 51.3% to 41.7% with most votes counted. Decision Desk HQ counted DeGette as the seventh House incumbent to lose renomination in 2026: five Democrats and two Republicans. The same night, Attorney General Phil Weiser beat Sen. Michael Bennet for the nomination for governor. DeGette had been in Congress as long as her opponent had been alive, which several reporters pointed out and DeGette presumably did not enjoy. A sitting senator also lost, to the state attorney general. Colorado Democrats spent one evening dismantling their own seniority system.
Collins Campaign Brushes Off Ossoff's Call for Three Debates
Sen. Jon Ossoff challenged Rep. Mike Collins on July 2 to three televised debates. Both men had already accepted the Atlanta Press Club series in October, and Collins's aides said that was enough, calling Ossoff's demand political theater rather than substance. Georgia has a tradition here. In 2021 Ossoff debated an empty podium after David Perdue declined to come back. Georgia Republicans have learned many things about Jon Ossoff, and one of them is that he shows up.
Graham Platner Quits the Maine Senate Race
Graham Platner said on July 8 he would withdraw as Maine's Democratic Senate nominee, after a woman who had dated him told Politico he raped her nearly five years earlier. Platner denied the allegation. Numerous Democrats had called on him to leave the race, and Sen. Bernie Sanders withdrew his endorsement. Platner filed his withdrawal on July 10. Maine law gave the party until July 27 to name a replacement. One month after the primary, the party was holding auditions for a Senate seat it badly needs. Ballotpedia counted Platner as only the 12th major-party Senate nominee to leave a race since 1976. Maine Democrats now own a footnote.
Sen. Lindsey Graham Dies at 71
Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died unexpectedly in Washington on July 11, two days after his 71st birthday. A preliminary medical examiner's report cited an aortic dissection. Graham, one of President Trump's closest allies in the Senate, chaired the Budget Committee and was set to become the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee. He had won his primary for a fifth term in June. Graham spent three decades in Congress as the senator who would say on camera what other Republicans were only thinking. He was rarely dull, and the Senate is a quieter room without him. Under South Carolina law, the filing period for a special primary opened ten days after his death.
Darline Graham Is Sworn In to Her Brother's Seat
Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, the late senator's sister, on July 13, and Sen. Chuck Grassley swore her in the next afternoon. She had never held public office and had worked as an optician and at state agencies. Lindsey Graham became her legal guardian when their parents died, when he was 22 and she was 13. McMaster said Trump thought the appointment was a great idea. She is South Carolina's first female senator. For one afternoon the Senate put the politics down and lined up to hug her. The politics came back a week later, when the filing period for her brother's spot on the November ballot opened.
Senate Democrats Outraise Republicans by Miles
Second-quarter filings due July 15 showed Democratic Senate candidates far ahead of their opponents. James Talarico raised $28.3 million in Texas to Ken Paxton's $2.2 million. Jon Ossoff entered July with nearly $43 million banked, against $2.1 million for Mike Collins. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed raised $4.6 million to Rep. Haley Stevens's $2.1 million ahead of their August primary. Republicans had an answer ready: Beto O'Rourke and Jaime Harrison set records and lost. That is true. It is also exactly what you say when you have $2.2 million.
Maine Democrats Pick Logger Troy Jackson to Face Collins
Delegates at a Maine Democratic convention in Bangor chose former state Senate President Troy Jackson on July 25 to replace Graham Platner. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from northern Maine, ran Bernie Sanders's Maine operation in 2016 and finished third in the June primary for governor. The delegate vote was 566 to 5 over Saundra Pelletier. Democrats replaced a nominee whose problems they had waved off with a man they have known for 20 years. In politics this is called vetting. It usually happens before the primary.
Missouri Republicans Lose a Ballot Fight, Then Block Another
Missouri voters rejected Amendment 4 on Aug. 4, a Republican-led measure that would have made it harder for citizens to put questions on the ballot. The same day, Secretary of State Denny Hoskins blocked a referendum petition against the congressional map Republicans passed in 2025, calling it unconstitutional. A Cole County judge upheld him on Aug. 19. Voters said no to making ballot measures harder. The secretary of state then made one ballot measure harder. You have to admire the commitment to a theme.
El-Sayed Beats the Establishment Pick in Michigan, Barely
Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Wayne County health director, won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary on Aug. 4 over Rep. Haley Stevens, whom the state party had backed. AP called the race the next morning; his margin was about 20,000 votes out of more than 1.4 million. He had led at least three polls by double digits. He faces former Rep. Mike Rogers, unopposed for the Republican nomination, for the seat Sen. Gary Peters is leaving. He led by double digits and won by less than a point. Michigan progressives celebrated anyway, on the reasonable grounds that a win you cannot explain still beats a loss you can.
A Megachurch Founder Wins Kansas's Democratic Nomination
Adam Hamilton, founder of a Methodist megachurch, won the Democratic Senate nomination in Kansas on Aug. 4 with about 35% in a divided field. He will face Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and has pitched himself as an independent-minded moderate. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Kansas Democrats have lost every Senate race for 94 years. This year they nominated a pastor, which is either a campaign strategy or an appeal to a higher authority.
Darline Graham Tops a 10-Way Special Primary
Sen. Darline Graham finished first in South Carolina's 10-candidate special Republican primary on Aug. 11 for her late brother's place on the November ballot. Rep. Ralph Norman came second. Neither reached 50%, so the two went to an Aug. 25 runoff. Norman has been in Congress since 2017. Graham had been in the Senate for four weeks and in politics for five. She beat him anyway, which says something about the power of a surname, or of a president who likes yours.
Peggy Flanagan Wins Minnesota's Senate Primary
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on Aug. 11 with about 59%, beating centrist Rep. Angie Craig for an open seat. Republicans nominated former sportscaster Michele Tafoya. In Connecticut, Rep. John Larson lost his primary the same night. Another progressive took another Senate primary from a moderate member of Congress. The party establishment has picked up a new summer hobby, which is reading primary returns through its fingers.
Johnson Predicts Republicans Will Grow the House Majority
Campaigning in Auburn, Maine, on Aug. 17 for former Gov. Paul LePage in the 2nd District, Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News Digital he was "absolutely convinced" Republicans would defy history, keep the House and add seats. He argued the midterms would be a choice between the parties rather than a referendum on President Trump. Since the 1930s the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm three times. Johnson's plan is to make it four. It is a plan in the same sense that a lottery ticket is a retirement strategy.
Peltola Outpolls Sullivan, and a Second Dan Sullivan Advances
Former Rep. Mary Peltola won 49.5% in Alaska's open top-four primary on Aug. 18 to about 41% for Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. A retired Petersburg schoolteacher also named Dan Sullivan, registered as a Republican, advanced too, finishing third with about 2.5%. The senator's allies called him a sham candidate; he denies trying to confuse anyone. Elsewhere that night, three Trump-endorsed candidates lost primaries in Florida and Wyoming. An incumbent senator trailing by eight points in a state Trump carried by 13 has real problems. Explaining to voters which Dan Sullivan he is was not supposed to be one of them.
Angie Nixon Upsets Alexander Vindman in Florida
State Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist, easily won Florida's Democratic primary for the Senate special election on Aug. 18 over Alexander Vindman, a much better financed candidate. She will face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat Marco Rubio left to become secretary of state. Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz beat challengers from their left the same night. Vindman became famous testifying at Trump's first impeachment. Florida Democrats picked a state legislator instead. NPR summed up the night as a mixed message, which in Florida is the only kind Democrats ever get.
Sherrod Brown Ties Husted to the Iran War at the Pump
At a Toledo kickoff on Aug. 21, former Sen. Sherrod Brown attacked Republican Sen. Jon Husted's votes on the war in Iran, saying they had raised costs for truckers, farmers and consumers, and went after his record on data centers. "Jon Husted stands with corporations, not with Ohioans," Brown said. The winner serves the last two years of JD Vance's term. Republicans like to point out that Brown has been in Ohio politics since Husted was a child. Brown's answer is that Husted has been in office long enough to vote for the gas prices.
Johnson to Kushner: Don't Bet Against House Republicans
Speaker Johnson said on Fox News on Aug. 23 that he had learned only that morning about a private meeting between Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He said Kushner "hedges bets" but should not bet against House Republicans. Trump had recently said he would probably get along with Jeffries if Democrats won the House. When the president's son-in-law starts meeting the man who might be the next speaker, the current speaker has two options. He can panic, or he can go on Sunday television and explain that he is not panicking. Johnson chose the second, which is the first with better lighting.
Darline Graham Wins the Runoff With Trump's Help
Sen. Darline Graham won South Carolina's special Republican runoff on Aug. 25 with about 52.5% over Rep. Ralph Norman, four days after President Trump rallied with her in Myrtle Beach. She faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a physician, in November. Trump celebrated on Truth Social with a photo of the two of them and a caption noting that she had his endorsement. Six weeks after taking her first oath of any kind, Graham beat a sitting congressman. Trump took the credit, and in fairness the caption was accurate.
Ed Markey Holds Off Seth Moulton
Sen. Ed Markey, 80, won Massachusetts's Democratic Senate primary on Sept. 1 over Rep. Seth Moulton, who had challenged him from inside the state's own congressional delegation. In a summer when Democratic voters kept firing incumbents, the oldest one on the ballot survived. Massachusetts does not do trends. It does Markey.
Missouri Supreme Court Puts the New GOP Map on Hold
The Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously on Sept. 3 that a referendum petition against the state's 2025 Republican congressional map had enough signatures and ordered it onto the ballot, which left the 2022 map in force for November. The 2025 map had targeted the Kansas City district of Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. Republicans redrew the map without asking voters. Voters collected signatures to be asked. The court said asking is allowed. Republicans went to federal court to find out whether it really is.
Troy Jackson Accepts Four October Debates
Troy Jackson announced on Sept. 4 that he would debate Sen. Susan Collins four times in October, more than a week after the Collins campaign proposed the series. Jackson said Collins had spent 25 years avoiding public town halls. A Collins spokesman answered that Jackson still would not debate the following week. So the candidate who wanted town halls agreed to debates, and the candidate who wanted debates complained about the schedule of the debates. Maine voters will get four of them anyway, which is three more than most Senate races manage.
John E. Sununu Wins New Hampshire's GOP Primary
Former Sen. John E. Sununu won New Hampshire's Republican Senate primary on Sept. 8 over former Sen. Scott Brown, for the seat Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is giving up. Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic nomination over Karishma Manzur. Two former senators ran to become a senator again. New Hampshire Republicans picked the one with the family name, which in New Hampshire works roughly the way it does for Kennedys in Massachusetts.
Republicans Open the First Midterm Convention
Republicans opened a two-night midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Sept. 9, with President Trump headlining both nights; AP called it a "Trump-a-Palooza." The RNC billed it as a first in American political history. Trump again urged Republicans to pretend he was on the ballot. Democrats held midterm conventions in the 1970s and early 1980s and dropped the idea after 1982. Republicans in swing districts spent the summer insisting this election was about local issues. Then the party built a stage in Dallas, filled the rafters with balloons and put the president in the middle. The local issue, it turns out, is him.
Trump Says the War Ends When the Election Does
Leaving for Dallas on Sept. 9, Trump said he expected Iran to give up the war once the midterms were over and that gas would fall below $2 a gallon, though he conceded that would probably take a bit longer than the election. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had once predicted gas near $3 by Labor Day. AAA put the national average at $4.22 that day and diesel at a record $5.94. To recap: the war that was supposed to last four to six weeks will end after the election, and gas will be cheap shortly after that. Voters are asked to pay $4.22 a gallon in the meantime and vote on the honor system.
Husted Takes Aim at Brown From the Convention Stage
On the convention's second night, Sept. 10, Sen. Jon Husted told the Dallas crowd that Sherrod Brown was first elected to the Ohio House when Husted was 7 years old. Vice President JD Vance spoke before Trump closed the convention. Husted's case is that Brown has been around too long. Husted has held office in Ohio since 2001 and sits in the Senate by appointment. It is a bold argument from a man who has never been out of a government job long enough to miss one.
Harris Signs On to Campaign With Ossoff
CNN reported on Sept. 10 that former Vice President Kamala Harris would keynote a Fulton County Democrats dinner and campaign with Sen. Jon Ossoff at the end of October. Asked on a podcast whether she would run for president again, Harris said the midterms were occupying her thoughts full time. Every possible 2028 Democrat in the country is currently thinking only about the midterms. Full time. Often in states that hold early primaries.
Harris Campaigns for El-Sayed in Detroit
Harris campaigned in Michigan for Abdul El-Sayed and spoke at an NAACP fireside chat at Fellowship Church in Detroit on Sept. 22, AP reported. El-Sayed, who backs Medicare for All and halting military aid to Israel, is running against Republican Mike Rogers for an open seat Democrats must hold. In 2024 Harris ran as the safe choice. In 2026 she is campaigning for the candidates who beat the safe choice. Nobody in Detroit seemed to find this strange.
Supreme Court Leaves Missouri's Old Map in Place
Missouri Republicans' effort to use their 2025 congressional map ended on Sept. 25, when the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously stayed lower-court orders requiring it. A federal judge had ordered the new map on Sept. 8, the same day Justice Brett Kavanaugh denied an earlier emergency appeal from Missouri Republicans, and the Eighth Circuit had backed the judge on Sept. 21. The 2022 map stays for 2026. In three weeks the Missouri map went through the state supreme court, a federal judge, an appeals court and the U.S. Supreme Court twice. It ended exactly where it started. Missouri voters who wanted to know which district they live in now have an answer: the old one.
James Talarico Vanishes From the Trail With the Flu
Texas Democratic nominee James Talarico stopped holding public campaign events after Sept. 30. His campaign said he had the flu and noted he had held more than 100 public events before he got sick. Paxton and Trump spent the next week asking where he was. A Democrat leading in Texas takes a sick day during flu season. In any other year this is a sick day. In 2026 it became a missing-persons case, investigated by the state attorney general, who is also his opponent.
Trump Opens a Month of Rallies in Alabama
President Trump rallied at the University of South Alabama's Mitchell Center in Mobile on Oct. 2, at the start of what Gray DC described as a 32-day series of rallies that would include Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Alaska and Nebraska. White House officials told NBC News he would campaign in at least 17 states before Nov. 3. Alabama is not a swing state. It has not swung since the Carter administration. When the president's closing tour opens in Mobile, the plan is to protect places Republicans never used to think about.
Trump in Ohio: Pretend I'm on the Ballot
At Butler High School in Vandalia, near Dayton, on Oct. 3, Trump rallied for Sen. Jon Husted and gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, told the crowd to pretend he was on the ballot and urged a yes vote on Issue 3, a voter ID amendment. Introducing Ramaswamy, he recalled their 2024 primary and called him "a nasty guy" before praising him as smart. Former NFL coach Jon Gruden, Husted's college teammate, made a cameo. Trump endorsed Ramaswamy by calling him nasty and then smart, which is the warmest thing he has said about anyone who once ran against him. Ohio Republicans took it. Ohio Republicans will take anything this month.
Brown Answers Trump's Rally With a Billboard Truck
While Trump rallied in Vandalia on Oct. 3, Sherrod Brown's campaign drove a mobile billboard through Dayton and the streets near the rally linking Husted's support for the war in Iran to higher gas prices, NBC News reported. Ohio's early voting opened three days later, on Oct. 6. The president brought a stadium. Brown brought a truck. In a race about the price of gas, the truck made the more expensive point.
Trump Rallies in Nebraska for Ricketts
Trump headlined a rally at the Nebraska State Fairgrounds in Grand Island on Oct. 5 for Sen. Pete Ricketts and Gov. Jim Pillen. Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, a union mechanic whom the state Democratic Party endorsed after its own nominee withdrew. Nebraska Democrats solved their Senate problem by not having a candidate. It is the most successful thing they have tried in years, and the president had to fly to Grand Island to deal with it.
Vance Rallies for Sullivan in Fairbanks
Vice President JD Vance rallied for Sen. Dan Sullivan in Fairbanks, the hometown of Sullivan's wife, on Oct. 5. Polls showed Mary Peltola even or slightly ahead, and the president was booked for Wasilla eight days later. In the August primary Sullivan finished 8 points behind Peltola statewide. Two White House visits in nine days to a state Trump won by 13. Alaska Republicans used to campaign against Washington. This fall they are importing it.
Collins Runs on Seniority in the First Maine Debate
In the first of four debates, on Oct. 6, Sen. Susan Collins touted $1.5 billion she said she had steered to Maine and blamed Troy Jackson, as former state Senate president, for policies she said drove up energy and housing costs. Jackson turned the night into a referendum on her effectiveness. Polls showed Mainers picking Collins as the more effective senator and Democrats as the party they wanted running the Senate. That is the whole race in one sentence. Mainers like Collins. They like the other party's majority more. Her pitch is that she gets things done. His pitch is that the first thing she gets done in January is vote for John Thune.
Trump and Paxton Ask Where Talarico Went
At a rally with Trump at San Antonio's Freeman Coliseum on Oct. 7, Ken Paxton asked the crowd, "Where do you think they hid that little socialist?" His campaign followed with a wanted poster of James Talarico demanding proof he was alive. Flying home on Air Force One, Trump posted that Talarico should report immediately to a debate stage. Paxton had spent three months not debating Talarico. Then the president demanded a debate. A campaign that had been asking where Talarico was now had to explain where Paxton was.
Trump Rules Out Striking Iran Before the Election
Trump said on Oct. 8 that the United States would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, citing productive talks, after The Atlantic reported the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be used before the vote. Brent crude had touched $105.88 that day. The war, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, was in its eighth month. So the official position is no new attacks before the election and no promises after it. It may be the first foreign policy doctrine with a polling date written into it.
Talarico Accepts Trump's Debate Challenge
"President Trump just said Ken Paxton should debate. I agree," Talarico posted on Oct. 8, and left Paxton a voicemail offering to debate on Fox News, which had accepted. Paxton did not respond. The candidates and more than a dozen outside groups had spent over $247 million on Texas ads by then, according to AdImpact, and the two had never appeared together. A Democrat agreeing with Donald Trump in public, on purpose, and clearly enjoying it. Texas has seen a lot this year. It had not seen that.
Ossoff Puts Mike Collins on Trial in Their First Debate
In their first debate, at Atlanta News First's studio on Oct. 8, Sen. Jon Ossoff attacked Rep. Mike Collins over Trump's tariffs, the Iran war and racist and antisemitic statements by Collins's associates. Invoking his mentor John Lewis, Ossoff said Collins "would be grabbing a billy club" if Lewis were marching from Selma today. Collins accused Ossoff of backing people who want Israel wiped off the map. Georgia debates used to be polite affairs. This one opened with a historical reenactment, and both men agreed to do it again five days later.
Trump in Tennessee as a Judge Pulls His Taxpayer-Funded Ads
Trump rallied in Clarksville, Tennessee, on Oct. 10, spending much of his speech calling Democrats communists and socialists. That weekend a federal judge ordered the administration to stop airing ads paid for with about $20 million in Homeland Security funds that portrayed the president favorably. The New York Times put his approval near 37%. There is a word for ads that praise the president, paid for by the government, airing a month before an election. A federal judge found it, and it was not "public service announcement."
Bernie Sanders Barnstorms Maine for Jackson
Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigned with Troy Jackson at rallies in Bangor, Lewiston and Biddeford on Oct. 10 and 11, Politico reported. A Marist poll of 1,505 registered voters taken Oct. 1 to 4 had Jackson ahead of Collins by 4 points. Sanders backed Jackson for governor and Platner for Senate. Jackson lost the governor's race, and Platner lost the Senate race without anyone voting. Undeterred, Sanders is now backing Jackson for Senate. Maine progressives call this persistence.
Trump Returns to Ohio, This Time in Youngstown
Trump held his second Ohio rally in nine days at Youngstown's Covelli Centre on Oct. 12, telling the crowd Ohio was about the only state where he had done two. He praised Ramaswamy's push to suspend the gas tax for 90 days and attacked Democrat Amy Acton's record as health director during COVID-19. Husted said Trump had flipped Youngstown red forever. Ohio's early in-person vote was running at nearly four times the 2022 pace. When the president needs two rallies in a state he carried by 11 points, "red forever" starts to look like it has an expiration date.
Ossoff and Collins Hold a Second, Angrier Debate
Ossoff and Collins met again on Oct. 13 at Georgia Public Broadcasting for the Atlanta Press Club, the day early voting opened in Georgia. After a defensive first outing, Collins opened with sharp attacks and name-calling, the AJC reported. The on-screen caption misspelled Ossoff's name at the start of the broadcast. Ossoff has been on Georgia ballots since 2017, and the graphic at his final debate still could not spell his name. Collins handled the rest of the insults himself.
Trump Rallies in Wasilla for the Real Dan Sullivan
Trump rallied on Oct. 13 at Wasilla's Menard Center, an arena that seats about 3,000 for hockey, for Sen. Dan Sullivan and Rep. Nick Begich, whom he kept calling the real Dan Sullivan. He endorsed Bernadette Wilson for governor and urged Alaskans to repeal the state's top-four primary and ranked-choice general election through Ballot Measure 2. Polls showed Peltola with a small lead. Ranked-choice voting is how Peltola first got to Congress in 2022. Trump would like Alaskans to repeal it, using the same ballot on which ranked-choice voting decides whether Sullivan keeps his job.
Johnson Promises a Working Majority and Mentions Lawn Care
Campaigning in Bangor, Maine, for Paul LePage on Oct. 14, Speaker Johnson told AP that Republicans would hold the House, adding, "It's not going to be a giant majority." He had joked to Fox News about starting a lawn care business in Shreveport if Republicans lost. That week the Congressional Leadership Fund canceled spending in four House races, including in Iowa and New Jersey. In August he was going to grow the majority. In October he is keeping a working one. The lawn care business is the first contingency plan anyone in House leadership has said out loud.
Harris Builds Out a Final Midterm Tour
Kamala Harris's office released a closing schedule on Oct. 14 that added Mississippi, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, plus a virtual event for Florida's Angie Nixon, to earlier stops in Nevada and Georgia. New Hampshire votes third on Democrats' 2028 primary calendar. A Marist poll released the same day had Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% in Texas. Harris says she has made no decision about 2028. Her October itinerary happens to include the state that votes third. These things happen.
Brown Outraises Husted Nearly Five to One
Third-quarter filings due Oct. 15 showed Sherrod Brown raised $23.1 million in July, August and September to Sen. Jon Husted's $4.8 million, the fifth straight quarter Brown led. Spectrum News noted the race could approach the $543 million spent on Ohio's 2024 Senate race, a record for a non-presidential contest. Husted spent the day at the Mahoning County GOP headquarters in Boardman. Republicans' answer is the super PACs: the Senate Leadership Fund raised $273 million last quarter. The catch is that candidates buy television at cheaper rates than super PACs do, which is the kind of detail that decides Ohio Senate races and nobody's dinner conversation.
Talarico Raises $64 Million in a Single Quarter
James Talarico reported raising $64 million from July through September, the largest third-quarter haul by any Senate candidate on record and more than triple Paxton's. Jon Ossoff raised $33 million, almost all of it in donations under $100. Sherrod Brown raised $23.1 million for his campaign, Roy Cooper $19.5 million and Mary Peltola about $17 million. OpenSecrets counted $620.7 million for active Democratic Senate candidates this cycle, about 2.5 times the Republicans' total. Beto O'Rourke's 2018 third quarter was $38.1 million, and he still lost by less than three points. Democrats know this. They raised the money anyway, on the theory that losing Texas by less is still progress, and winning it would be a miracle with receipts.
Troy Jackson Tells Susan Collins to Shut Up
In the final Maine debate, at the Gracie Theatre in Bangor on Oct. 15, a protester interrupted to object to a data center. When Collins suggested the protester was one of Jackson's backers, Jackson told her to "shut up." The Maine GOP called it unacceptable, and Collins called the speed of his retort very telling. Jackson said he had no regrets and had not known who the protester was. A poll of 500 voters taken Oct. 8 to 11 had Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%. Susan Collins has been in the Senate for nearly 30 years and has been called a lot of things, most of them "moderate." This was the first time an opponent told her to stop talking on live television. In Maine, that may now count as a debate format.
Trump Rallies in Georgia and Relitigates 2020
Trump rallied at Dalton Municipal Airport in northwest Georgia on Oct. 16 with Mike Collins and gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson, the first time the two Republicans had shared a venue all fall. He spent more of the speech on Democrats, the Iran war and the border than on Georgia candidates, and again falsely said the 2020 election in Georgia was rigged. Collins has echoed those claims. Six years after Georgia counted its presidential votes three times, the president came back to Georgia to say they were counted wrong. Republicans running statewide this year would very much like to talk about anything else.
Ossoff: Surprised Georgia Republicans Want the President Here
Ahead of Trump's Dalton rally, Ossoff said he was surprised Georgia Republicans wanted the president there. Ossoff and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms had held several joint rallies by mid-October; the Republican nominees for Senate and governor appeared together for the first time in Dalton. A Democratic strategist told the Daily Mail Ossoff was running a flawless campaign. When the Republican running for governor avoids the Republican running for Senate until the president makes them share a stage, the Democrat can afford one sentence of sarcasm. Ossoff used exactly one.
Brown Rallies Union Carpenters in Toledo
Sherrod Brown rallied with Rep. Marcy Kaptur at the Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters in Toledo on Oct. 17. Trump had already visited Ohio twice that month to help Husted, and polls showed a tight race as voters dealt with high costs tied to the war with Iran. Brown's closing argument is the one he has made since he was first elected in 1974: he is for the people who build things. The difference this year is that the cost of building things now includes a war.
Texas Early Voting Opens With Record Lines
Early voting began in Texas on Oct. 19, and several North Texas counties set records. Dallas County reported 76,079 ballots on the first day, more than the 56,431 cast on day one of the 2024 presidential election. Tarrant County counted 50,409, up from 29,197 in the 2022 midterm. Printer problems hit about 10 Collin County sites that morning. More Dallas County voters showed up on day one of a midterm than on day one of a presidential election. Nobody in either party knows what that means, so both parties announced it was great news.
Trump Rallies in Kansas, Where the Race Is Tied
Trump rallied at Heartland Credit Union Arena in Park City, Kansas, on Oct. 19 for Sen. Roger Marshall, part of a run of rallies on Republican turf as AFP reported midterm fears mounting. A New York Times/Siena poll had shown Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a dead heat in a state Trump won by 16 points. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Republicans have still decided it is worth a presidential visit, which is how you can tell the 94-year streak is nervous.
Neil Bush Votes for the Democrat in Texas
Neil Bush, brother of former President George W. Bush, said in a social media post on Oct. 20 that he had voted for Democrat James Talarico, citing Ken Paxton's effort to contest the 2020 presidential results in other states, which he called "an affront to our democratic institutions." Al Jazeera reported no response from the Paxton campaign. The Bush family has given Texas a governor, two presidents and a land commissioner. This week it gave Talarico one vote. Paxton beat George P. Bush in a 2022 primary runoff, and the family, it turns out, remembers.
Talarico told TMZ on Oct. 21 that Paxton had refused to debate him and suggested TMZ host it. Asked about Republicans' jabs at his masculinity, he called Paxton's refusal "pretty Low-T behavior in my book." He had already agreed to multiple debates, including one on Fox News. The Texas Senate race has reached the point where a former seminarian is trading testosterone insults with the state attorney general on a celebrity gossip site. The founders did not anticipate TMZ. They did anticipate Texas.
Paxton Will Debate, Just Not on CNN
Paxton told TMZ he would debate Talarico somewhere other than CNN: "I don't want a CNN reporter covering our debate." Fox News had already accepted Talarico's offer. Trump, meanwhile, blamed Paxton's struggles on Sen. John Cornyn and Karl Rove, whom he called a Super RINO. Vance rallied in Sharonville, Ohio, the same week for Husted and Ramaswamy. Paxton has now turned down CNN and ignored Fox News. At this rate the only network left is TMZ, which has already offered.
Justice Department Sues Over Alaska's Second Dan Sullivan
The Justice Department sued in federal court on Oct. 22, asking that Alaska be barred from certifying its Senate result if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses by fewer votes than his namesake, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., receives, pending an inquiry into voter confusion under the National Voter Registration Act. State courts had kept the second Sullivan on the ballot. Trump defended the suit two days later. Let's be precise about the legal theory. If Sullivan wins, the votes are fine. If Sullivan loses narrowly, voters were confused by a man his own allies called a sham. It is a lawsuit designed to matter only if your side loses.
Harris in Mississippi: 2028 Doesn't Matter Without 2026
Harris campaigned in Columbus, Mississippi, on Oct. 22 for Scott Colom, who would be the state's first Black senator since Reconstruction if he unseats Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, leading the crowd in chants that Mississippi matters. She called the Trump administration corrupt, callous and incompetent. On 2028 she said, "2028 don't matter if we don't do 2026 right." Mississippi was not on anyone's Senate map in the spring. In October the former vice president was there leading chants, and the president followed four days later. Maps change. Usually not in Mississippi.
Forecasters Give Democrats 95 Percent Odds in the House
Silver Bulletin's model, updated Oct. 22, gave Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House and 76.4% for the Senate, projecting a 52-48 Democratic Senate. VoteHub put Democrats' Senate odds at 60% and Decision Desk HQ at 57%. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper held a get-out-the-vote concert with Gov. Josh Stein on Oct. 23. Ninety-five percent. Democrats have seen numbers like that before, most memorably in 2016. The party's official response to a good forecast is now a sort of controlled panic.
Trump Rallies in Fort Myers as Florida Votes Early
Trump rallied at Florida Gulf Coast University's Alico Arena in Fort Myers on Oct. 23, a day after posting endorsements for Sen. Ashley Moody and a list of Florida House Republicans. By then 10% of Florida's 16.2 million voters had cast ballots: 41% registered Democrats, 38% Republicans and 21% independents. In a state Republicans won by double digits two years ago, more registered Democrats than Republicans had voted early. Republicans say their voters show up on Election Day. That is the plan, and Fort Myers is where the president went to remind them of it.
Trump Votes Early, Then Defends the Ramaswamy Ad
Trump and the first lady cast early ballots in West Palm Beach on Oct. 24, the first day of Florida's mandatory early-voting period. Asked whether he had voted the party line, he said, "Very much so." At the polling site he defended an Ohio ad by Vivek Ramaswamy featuring the estranged mother of Democrat Amy Acton, which had drawn wide criticism, and the Justice Department's Alaska lawsuit. Then he flew to a rally in Georgia. Trump has spent six years warning Americans about how they vote. On Saturday he voted ten days early and seemed to enjoy it.
Obama Compares the White House to a Cheesecake Factory
Campaigning in Cleveland on Oct. 24 for Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton, Barack Obama mocked Trump's White House renovations, the ballroom, the paved-over Rose Garden and the gold: "He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory." He also said Iran now had a veto over the Strait of Hormuz. Republicans spent the next three days defending a restaurant chain. The Treasury secretary ate lunch at one. The White House posted a mock menu. Cheesecake Factory stock, already more than doubled this year, did not need the help.
Harris Campaigns With Chris Pappas in New Hampshire
Harris campaigned with Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic Senate nominee, in New Hampshire on Oct. 24, including a discussion on reproductive health care and abortion rights. Pappas faces former Sen. John E. Sununu for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving. New Hampshire is where politicians go to explain that they are not thinking about running for president. Harris explained it there, for a Senate candidate, four years early.
Trump Calls El-Sayed a Jihadist in Michigan
At a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, on Oct. 25, Trump escalated his attacks on Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, calling him a "jihadist" and saying he should have to pass through a metal detector in the Senate. Republican nominee Mike Rogers, on the same stage, linked El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood without evidence. El-Sayed called the attacks a distraction from costs and health care. A survey found 35% of Michigan voters viewed Trump positively. El-Sayed is a Michigan-born physician who ran a county health department. The case against him offered in Port Huron was his religion. That is not a dog whistle. A dog whistle is quiet.
Thirty Million Early Ballots and Counting
More than 30 million Americans had voted by Oct. 26, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. AP comparisons with the same point in 2022 found early voting up about 74% in Texas, 39% in Maine and 30% in Ohio, and down about 6% in Iowa. Democrats, including Rep. Maxwell Frost, denounced Islamophobic ads aimed at El-Sayed in Michigan, and Harris campaigned in Wisconsin with gubernatorial nominee David Crowley. Early vote numbers tell you how many people voted and nothing about how they voted. Both parties know this, and both parties sent out press releases anyway.
Trump Answers Obama From Mississippi
At Joint Base Andrews on Oct. 26, Trump told Obama that calling the White House a Cheesecake Factory showed "why you were a lousy president," then rallied in Corinth, Mississippi, for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith as Democrat Scott Colom narrowed the race. He told the crowd nobody had ever campaigned for midterms the way he had. The same day he posted on Truth Social that anyone reporting voter fraud would get $1 million upon the arrest and conviction of those responsible. A full day's work: a restaurant defended, a red state shored up, and a million-dollar reward offered for evidence of something courts and election officials keep finding scant evidence of.
Prediction Markets Price In a Democratic Sweep
One week out, traders on Kalshi put a 63% chance on Democrats winning both the House and the Senate, CNBC reported on Oct. 27; Polymarket had 65%. Kalshi gave Republicans just under 10% of sweeping both chambers. Before early September, Democrats' sweep odds had been below 50%. Speaker Johnson has cast doubt on the polls. The markets are not polls. They are people betting their own money, and most of them have bet against him.
Trump Brings Rubio and Venezuelan Oil to Texas
Trump held two rallies for Ken Paxton in Texas on Oct. 27, including one in Corpus Christi, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on hand. He said a tanker was bringing a million barrels of Venezuelan oil and floated making Venezuela the 51st state, announced plans to roll back Biden-era methane limits on oil and gas, and said he would respect the midterm results if the elections were honest. The president's closing argument in Texas was oil from a country he would like to annex, delivered with the secretary of state, at a rally for an attorney general who sued to overturn the 2020 election. He will respect this one if it is honest. Paxton can let him know.
The Biggest Donors: Republicans Two to One
The 50 largest donors of the 2026 cycle had given $2.77 billion, Al Jazeera tallied: $1.67 billion from Republican-aligned contributors and $832 million from Democratic-aligned ones. Elon Musk led all individuals with $446 million, followed on the Republican side by Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein at $150 million; George Soros led Democratic-aligned donors at $102 million. AdImpact projected $11.6 billion in ad spending, the most for any midterm. Musk alone gave nearly twice what Soros, Michael Bloomberg and Reid Hoffman gave combined. Each party has a billionaire it likes to warn you about. The Democrats' one is cheaper this year.
Trump's Third Ohio Rally Is Interrupted Over Epstein
At his third Ohio rally of the month, in Chillicothe on Oct. 28, Trump defended Vivek Ramaswamy, saying he had been treated "very unfairly," and answered protesters who interrupted over Jeffrey Epstein by saying he had thrown Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago about two decades ago. Vice President Vance rallied the same day in Kinston, North Carolina, for Michael Whatley. Ohio Republicans hoped the final week would be about gas prices and taxes. The president's final week in Ohio was about an attack ad and Jeffrey Epstein. Neither was on the mailers.
Obama and Harris Descend on Georgia
Obama campaigned in Atlanta on Oct. 28 with Sen. Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, telling the crowd Republicans were more focused on his Cheesecake Factory joke than on the cost of living. Harris began a three-day Georgia swing the same day, ending at the Fulton County Democrats gala on Oct. 30. October polls had Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins by an average of 9 points. The joke has now been discussed by a former president, a sitting president, a Treasury secretary and the White House social media team. Obama would like everyone to notice that this is the problem. He made the point by bringing it up again.
A New Poll Has South Carolina Tied
A New York Times/Siena poll released Oct. 28 found Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48% among likely voters in South Carolina, a state Trump won by 18 points. Voters said by 13 points that Andrews, a physician, had the right experience to be an effective senator, and by 7 points that Graham did not. Nationally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll had Democrats up 9 on the generic ballot and Trump's approval at 32%. In July, South Carolina appointed a senator with no political experience. In October, South Carolina noticed.
Trump Plans a Closing Swing Through Red States
Trump's schedule for the final days ran through South Carolina, Florida, Kansas and Iowa, all states he carried comfortably in 2024. In Kansas, the parties and allied groups had committed about $71 million, the most expensive Senate race in state history, AP reported. Vance was set to rally in Weatherford, Texas. The Republican closing map is South Carolina, Florida, Kansas and Iowa. Two years ago that was the list of places nobody needed to visit. This week it is the itinerary.
Five Days Out, Democrats Lead the Averages
With five days to go, RealClearPolling's national average had Democrats ahead 51.4% to 43.2% on Oct. 29. In Texas, RCP put Talarico at 48.5% and Paxton at 46.7%. In Michigan, a Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit had El-Sayed at 51% and Rogers at 44%. In Maine, Jackson led Collins by 2 to 7 points across recent polls, and in Ohio Brown had edged Husted in nearly every poll since early October. A Democrat has not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Democrats know this, which is why every Texas Democrat you meet this week has the smile of a person holding their breath.
Fifty-Three Million Votes Before Election Day
By the morning of Nov. 1, 53.14 million people had voted early, 29 million in person and 23 million by mail, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, against 46 million early votes in the whole of the 2022 midterms. More than 11 million registered Democrats and about 8 million registered Republicans had voted in states that report party registration. Texas passed 7 million early votes, more than 1.5 million above 2022. AP counted early voting up 83% in South Carolina, 44% in Maine, 34% in Kansas and 32% in Michigan against the same point four years earlier. National polls two days out had Democrats at 51.5% and Republicans at 43.1%.
Election Day: What Democrats Need
Voters choose all 435 House members and 35 senators on Nov. 3, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. Democrats hold 47 Senate seats and need a net gain of four for a 51-seat majority; in the House they need a net gain of about three seats. The results are in the cards dated Nov. 4 to 7. Until then, every forecast is a guess with a decimal point attached.
Election Day: What Republicans Must Hold
Republicans defend a 53-47 Senate majority, with 22 of the 35 seats on the ballot, and a House majority of 218. In a 50-50 Senate, Vice President JD Vance would break ties. The results are in the cards dated Nov. 4 to 7. Republicans can lose three Senate seats and keep control. The polls show them in close races for about ten of their own seats. The arithmetic is simple. The night will not be.
The Senate Flips: Seven Seats Called by Wednesday
The Associated Press called 33 of the 35 Senate races by Nov. 4. Democrats took seven Republican-held seats: Iowa (Josh Turek), Kansas (Adam Hamilton), Maine (Troy Jackson), North Carolina (Roy Cooper), the Ohio special (Sherrod Brown), South Carolina (Annie Andrews) and Texas (James Talarico, 55.1%). With the seats not on the ballot, that puts Democrats at 54 and Republicans at 44, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled. They needed a net gain of four. Democrats spent the summer lowering expectations so carefully that they now have to explain how they won Texas and South Carolina on the same night.
The House Goes Too, by a Wide Margin
Networks projected a Democratic House overnight. By Nov. 5, NBC News projected Democrats would hold 259 seats after flipping 35 Republican-held districts. Republicans flipped one Democratic seat, Texas's 32nd District, which left the net Democratic gain at 34, according to The New York Times. Democrats had needed three. Dozens of districts, many in California, were still uncalled. Republicans redrew maps in several states over the summer to protect a four-seat majority. The new lines held. The voters inside them did not.
What Held, and What the President Said
Republicans won 13 of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, among them the Florida special (Ashley Moody, 50.9%), Louisiana (Julia Letlow, 50.9%), Montana (Kurt Alme, 48.8%) and Nebraska (Pete Ricketts, 50.4%). On Nov. 4 President Trump told Fox News he was "a little bit surprised" by the results and had thought Republicans would "do better." He added: "I think a part of it was Iran." The party lost Texas and kept Nebraska by less than a point. In a year like this, that counts as a firewall.
Alaska Waits for Nov. 18
On election night Sen. Dan Sullivan led Mary Peltola 48.3% to 47.5% on first-choice votes, 1,677 votes apart out of 208,441 counted. By Nov. 4 the AP count had Peltola ahead, 48.2% to 47.9%, by 626 votes with about three quarters counted. If nobody passes 50%, the ranked-choice tabulation decides the seat on Nov. 18. A retired teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. was also on the ballot and had under 2%. Alaska Republicans put a repeal of ranked-choice voting on this same ballot. The system they wanted gone may now decide whether they keep the seat.
Mississippi: 43 Votes, Then 2,574
Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982. On the morning after the election Scott Colom led Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes with 96% counted. By 11:36 a.m. on Nov. 6 the AP count stood at 467,066 to 465,056, and by early Nov. 7 the lead was 2,574, with affidavit and late mail ballots still coming in. Hyde-Smith's lawyers wrote to all 82 counties asking them to keep affidavit ballots separate. The state has no automatic recount, and counties must certify by Nov. 13. Both campaigns flew in lawyers. Colom calls his an army. Hyde-Smith's side has not said how many it sent.