The war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, tracked week by week: the fighting in Iran, President Donald Trump's posts on Truth Social, the price of Brent crude, and the fronts in Lebanon and Yemen. Updated through Nov. 9, 2026.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $73 a barrel on Feb. 27. U.S. crude settled at $67. About a fifth of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. A month earlier the U.S. Energy Information Administration had forecast Brent to average $58 in 2026.
President Donald Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 27 while flying to Texas aboard Air Force One. U.S. Central Command announced the first strikes early the next morning. Israel, calling its part Operation Roaring Lion, said it hit 500 military targets in the largest combat sortie in its history. U.S. and Israeli forces carried out nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours against missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure and the country's leadership. The attack came in the middle of talks over Iran's nuclear program and during Ramadan.
At 2:30 a.m. EST on Feb. 28, Trump posted a video announcing that the U.S. military had begun "major combat operations" in Iran. He presented regime change as a goal and urged Iranians to take over their government. Brent crude had settled at about $73 the day before.
The opening wave killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled Iran since 1989, along with dozens of other officials. Iran confirmed his death on March 1. A missile struck a girls' school next to a naval base in Minab, near Bandar Abbas, killing about 170 people. The Iranian Red Crescent said 24 provinces were hit on the first day.
Trump announced Khamenei's death on Truth Social before Iran confirmed it, calling him "one of the most evil people in History." He said it was the Iranian people's best chance to take back their country and claimed that parts of the security forces no longer wanted to fight.
Iran answered within hours with missiles and drones under the name Operation True Promise IV, aiming at Israel and at U.S. bases, embassies and oil infrastructure across the Gulf. Iranian state media called it the Ramadan War. On March 1 a missile hit a residential neighborhood in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem, killing nine Israeli civilians, the deadliest single Iranian strike on Israel of the war.
Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel on March 2, its first claimed attack since the November 2024 ceasefire, in retaliation for Khamenei's killing. Israel struck Beirut's southern suburbs and targets across Lebanon. The Israeli military told residents of about 50 towns and villages in the south and east to leave. Lebanon's government banned military activity by Hezbollah.
Tankers stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world's oil, after the Revolutionary Guard warned it would set ablaze any vessel attempting the passage. The U.S.-flagged tanker Stena Imperative and the Honduras-flagged Athe Nova were struck on March 2. The U.S. Embassy in Kuwait was hit the same day and closed indefinitely. The International Energy Agency later called the shutdown the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history.
Brent rose to $82.08, its highest since January 2025, as tanker flows through Hormuz stalled. Saudi Aramco temporarily suspended operations at Ras Tanura, the kingdom's largest refinery, after a drone strike.
The submarine USS Charlotte sank the frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean, about 40 nautical miles south of Galle, Sri Lanka. The ship was sailing home from an international fleet review and naval exercise hosted by India at Visakhapatnam. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said no U.S. submarine had attacked an enemy ship this way since World War II.
Israeli strikes hit oil storage sites around Tehran, killing four people. Burning fuel poured into streets near the depots, black smoke covered the capital and residents reported acidic rain. The same day the U.S. sent a third aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, to the region.
Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's second son, as supreme leader on March 8. The Revolutionary Guard, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, security chief Ali Larijani and President Masoud Pezeshkian pledged allegiance. Five days later the new leader declared that the Strait of Hormuz would stay shut.
Brent jumped to nearly $120 on March 9 as Gulf producers began cutting output, then settled at $94, according to the EIA. It fell below $93 the next day after Trump said the campaign was ahead of schedule, promised to waive oil sanctions and offered Navy escorts through the strait. The EIA raised its 2026 forecast to $79.
U.S. Central Command bombed Kharg Island, the Persian Gulf terminal that handles about 90% of Iran's crude exports, on March 13. It said 90 targets were hit, including naval mine storage sites and missile bunkers. The island's oil facilities were not struck. Trump announced the raid on Truth Social. The next day he told NBC News the U.S. might hit the island a few more times "just for fun." Iran vowed to retaliate.
The Israeli military began what it called a targeted ground operation on March 16 and sent a second division into southern Lebanon the next day. Defense Minister Israel Katz said displaced Lebanese could not return south until Hezbollah no longer threatened northern Israel. Unannounced strikes on central Beirut on March 18 killed at least 10 people.
Israel, coordinating with Washington, struck the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf and nearby refineries. Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world's largest liquefied natural gas production facility. Trump said he had no knowledge of the South Pars attack. Two days earlier China and European NATO members had turned down his call to help reopen the strait; Trump called that a "very foolish mistake."
U.S. aircraft dropped bunker-busting bombs on the Natanz nuclear site. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, said U.S. forces had struck more than 8,000 targets in Iran, including 130 vessels. Yemen's Houthis warned Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which had offered to join a campaign to reopen the strait, that they would be the first to lose.
Trump gave Iran 48 hours to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see the U.S. destroy its power plants, "STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Tehran said it would hit U.S. and Israeli energy, technology and desalination sites across the region if its plants were struck. Brent traded above $113 on the morning of March 23.
Writing in capital letters, Trump said the two countries had held "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" and that he had ordered a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Brent fell more than 10% to about $100 within hours. Iran's Fars news agency denied that any talks had taken place.
Brent traded above $113 on the morning of March 23 under Trump's power-plant ultimatum. It fell more than 10% to about $100 after he posted that strikes on Iranian energy sites would be postponed for five days. Iran's Fars agency denied that any talks had taken place.
Lebanon declared Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani persona non grata and gave him until that Sunday to leave. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the next day for a security zone in southern Lebanon. Three Indonesian U.N. peacekeepers were killed on March 29 and 30, one of them when Israel shelled a U.N. position.
An Iranian missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia damaged several U.S. refueling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry radar plane and injured at least 15 U.S. troops. It came one day after Trump and Hegseth said Iran's military had been neutralized. The Revolutionary Guard said the same day that the strait was closed to any ship going to or from U.S., Israeli or allied ports.
Houthi forces fired a ballistic missile at Beersheba, Israel, their first attack on Israel since the 2025 Gaza ceasefire. Israeli air defenses intercepted it. The group had held back for four weeks, unlike the rest of Iran's alliance. More missiles and drones followed on March 30 and April 1, 2, 4 and 6.
Brent settled at $112.78 on March 30, up about 55% for the month, the largest monthly gain since the contract began in 1988. The previous record, 46%, came in September 1990 during the first Gulf War. U.S. crude settled at $102.88.
In an address to the nation on April 1, Trump said attacks on Iran would escalate over the next two to three weeks, to "bring them back to the Stone Ages." The next day two U.S. strikes brought down the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj, described as the highest bridge in the Middle East. Eight people were reported killed and 95 wounded.
Brent jumped 8% to above $109 after Trump's address signaled weeks more fighting and no plan to reopen the strait. Dated Brent, the physical benchmark, passed $140, the highest since 2008. Britain convened a virtual meeting of about 40 countries on reopening the shipping route.
Iranian forces shot down a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle over Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province, the first such loss in more than 20 years. The pilot was rescued the same day. The weapons systems officer was recovered alive 48 hours later by special operations forces backed by 155 aircraft.
About 12 hours before his deadline, Trump wrote that "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." Democratic critics called the post sick and genocidal. The ceasefire was announced that evening.
Trump announced a two-week suspension of the bombing, citing requests from Pakistan's Sharif and Munir, on condition of the "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of the strait. Brent fell 13% the next day, its biggest one-day drop since April 2020.
Less than two hours before Trump's 8 p.m. deadline to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir. Iran was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides claimed victory. Israel and the U.S. said the truce did not cover Lebanon; Pakistan said it did. Iran halted traffic in the strait again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Hours after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness, hitting more than 100 Hezbollah targets across Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley within 10 minutes. Lebanon's Health Ministry said 182 people were killed, the highest one-day toll of the war. Netanyahu said the ceasefire did not extend to Lebanon.
Brent fell 13.29% to $94.75, and U.S. crude dropped 16.41% to $94.41, the largest one-day declines for both since April 2020. The Dow rose 1,325 points. Brent was still well above its prewar $73.
Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met in Islamabad on April 11-12, the highest-level direct contact between the two countries since the 1979 revolution. The session lasted 21 hours. Vance said Iran had refused to accept U.S. terms. Trump ordered a naval blockade.
Hours after the Islamabad talks failed, Trump posted that the U.S. would blockade ships entering or leaving Iranian ports from 10 a.m. EDT on April 13. Central Command confirmed the blockade would apply only to traffic bound to or from Iran.
The U.S. Navy began stopping ships bound to or from Iranian ports at 10 a.m. EDT on April 13, with an exception for humanitarian cargo. Central Command said it redirected more than 140 ships and disabled nine during this phase. The Guardian called the result a "dual blockade": the Navy could seal Iran's ports but could not force the strait open for anyone else.
Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day truce. It was extended more than once, though Israeli strikes continued. Iran briefly allowed commercial ships through Hormuz during the truce, then reimposed restrictions when Trump kept the blockade in place.
On April 21, the day before the truce was due to expire, Trump said he expected "to be bombing" if negotiators failed. Later that day he extended the ceasefire until Iran presented a proposal. On April 23 he ordered the Navy to destroy any Iranian boat laying mines in the strait.
Trump wrote that countries with ships trapped in the Gulf, "neutral and innocent bystanders," had asked for help and that the U.S. would guide those ships out. The escort effort, Project Freedom, began May 4 and was paused May 5.
Central Command began Project Freedom on May 4, a day after Trump announced it, to guide stranded ships out of the Gulf. Officials said about 22,500 mariners on more than 1,550 commercial ships were trapped. The operation was paused on May 5. Central Command said Iranian forces had fired on commercial ships at least nine times and seized two container vessels. The New York Times reported that Saudi Arabia had refused the U.S. use of its airspace and bases for the mission.
Iranian forces fired missiles and drones and sent small boats against three U.S. destroyers, the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta and USS Mason, as they moved through the Strait of Hormuz on May 7. The U.S. said it struck Iranian military sites in response. Iran said it returned fire. Six days earlier, Trump had written to congressional leaders that the hostilities with Iran had terminated and that there had been no exchange of fire since April 7.
On May 17 Trump warned Iran that "the Clock is Ticking." A day later he said he would hold off on a planned attack at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. naval blockade stayed in force. Through mid-June, Central Command said, it redirected more than 140 ships and disabled nine that did not comply.
Lebanon's Health Ministry said on May 18 that more than 3,000 people had been killed. Israeli strikes killed 51 people on May 10 alone. A Hezbollah drone badly wounded an Israeli brigade commander on May 20. The U.S. had scheduled Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington for May 14-15.
Israeli troops captured Beaufort Castle, a Crusader-era fortress on a strategic ridge in southern Lebanon, on May 31. Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel on May 30 and 31 without injuring civilians.
Israel and Lebanon reached a U.S.-brokered agreement on June 3. The framework, signed in late June, ties a gradual Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament and the deployment of the Lebanese army, starting in pilot zones. Hezbollah rejected disarmament. The Council on Foreign Relations estimates Israel holds about 20% of Lebanon and more than 1 million Lebanese are displaced.
The Israeli military said it struck military sites in Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran, Isfahan and Tabriz, after an exchange of fire that followed Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs. The Houthis fired two missiles at Israel. A U.S. helicopter went down near the strait on June 9; The New York Times reported its crew was rescued. On June 11 Trump threatened to hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and to take Kharg Island.
The U.S. and Iran reached an initial agreement on June 15 to extend the ceasefire and reopen the strait, The Associated Press reported. Pakistan said the final text had been agreed on June 12, and Vance said negotiators signed it digitally on June 14. Iran said the draft committed it never to produce or acquire nuclear weapons while letting it dilute its highly enriched uranium inside the country. Trump said he had authorized the end of the blockade.
On the day the initial deal was announced, Trump wrote that Iran had agreed never to have a nuclear weapon and called reports of a $300 million U.S. payment to Iran fake news. The detailed terms were published two days later, when the memorandum was signed.
Trump signed the 14-point memorandum at a dinner hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles after the Group of Seven summit. Pezeshkian signed in Tehran. The text promised U.S. oil sanctions waivers, a toll-free strait for 60 days, an Iranian pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons and a $300 billion reconstruction fund tied to a final deal. Central Command lifted the blockade on June 18.
The morning after the Versailles signing, Trump wrote that oil was flowing, stock markets were roaring and prices were dropping, and signed off with "YOU'RE WELCOME!" Within a week Brent had briefly erased all of its wartime gains.
Trump announced a renewed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, facilitated by the U.S., Qatar and Iran, after the Versailles memorandum called for an end to the war on all fronts. On June 20 Hezbollah said it attacked Israeli forces trying to capture Ali al-Taher near Nabatieh. Israel kept striking the south.
Brent lost about $17 over the four sessions through June 17 as the memorandum was signed, then briefly erased all of its wartime gains as traffic through Hormuz picked up. It closed up about 2% on June 24 after a projectile hit a ship off Oman. U.S. crude settled near $72.
After a projectile struck a commercial tanker in the strait, U.S. aircraft hit Iranian missile and drone depots and coastal radar sites. Kuwait and Bahrain reported incoming missiles and drones overnight. U.S. officials said on June 28 that both sides would pause hostilities and let ships transit freely while technical talks continued.
Trump said U.S. aircraft had struck Iranian missile and drone depots and coastal radar sites because Iran had violated the ceasefire "AGAIN!" He warned that if the U.S. were forced to finish the job, the Islamic Republic would cease to exist.
Iran struck three commercial vessels on July 6-7 that had bypassed its approved route through the strait. The U.S. bombed Iranian targets overnight. At the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, Trump said he considered the ceasefire over. The Wall Street Journal reported two days later that Israel had passed the U.S. intelligence on a new Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
Brent rose 5.2% to $78.02 and U.S. crude gained 4.4% to $73.52 after Trump threatened to bomb Iran and restore the blockade. Exports through Hormuz had only begun to recover.
Sharing footage of strikes, Trump called them "retribution for yesterday's bombing of ships by Iran" and warned that a repeat would bring worse. Brent rose 5.2% that day to $78.02.
Saudi Arabia reportedly struck Sanaa International Airport to stop a Mahan Air flight, said to be carrying Revolutionary Guard commanders and weapons, from landing. After the U.S. restored its blockade on July 14, a senior Houthi official said the group was ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Trump announced the return of the blockade and said the U.S. would be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT," reimbursed at 20% of all cargo shipped. The fee lasted one day.
Trump announced on July 13 that the U.S. would reinstate the blockade and collect 20% of the value of cargo moving through the strait. He dropped the fee the next day, when the blockade took effect. The council of the International Maritime Organization said member states should reject Iran's claim of sovereignty over the waterway. The Revolutionary Guard navy said it had closed the strait until further notice.
Trump wrote that oil was flowing "like never before" and announced a full blockade limited to ships serving Iranian ports or carrying Iranian cargo, with no mention of the 20% fee. He credited Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine and Adm. Brad Cooper.
The Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, calling it "siege for siege." On July 22 they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones. Saudi aircraft struck the port of Hodeidah and Kamaran Island on July 24. Reuters had reported on July 16 that Iran asked the Houthis to be ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb.
The remains of 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, Sgt. Angel S. Rampersad and Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton arrived at Dover Air Force Base on July 22. Thirteen U.S. service members had already been killed by mid-June, Sen. Bill Cassidy said. BBC Verify found new damage at nine U.S. bases in satellite images taken between July 12 and Aug. 1. Farzin Nadimi of The Washington Institute said Iran's attacks in the renewed fighting were more extensive and more effective than before.
Brent climbed back above $90 after Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces. Iran was attacking tankers in Hormuz, and the Houthis had declared an embargo on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, putting both of the region's shipping chokepoints in play. Brent passed $100 in late July, CBS News reported.
Trump wrote that the U.S. was "locked and loaded" but had canceled an attack after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries said the outlines of a deal had been agreed. Iran's armed forces denied asking for any delay.
Trump said he and Israel had called off a large strike, planned as the biggest U.S. operation since World War II, after Iran asked for more time to reach a deal. Qatar had worked to head it off, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had voiced concern. Iran's armed forces denied making any such request and called Trump's account a lie.
Israel resumed strikes on southern Lebanon on Aug. 5, citing a Hezbollah violation, while the two governments held U.S.-sponsored talks in Rome. Beirut said at least one person was killed. Israel issued its first evacuation warning in weeks. Lebanon is seeking a phased Israeli withdrawal.
Brent rose 3.8% to $82.49 after Iranian state media published a draft plan with restrictive conditions for ships in the strait. Prices had fallen about 8% that week after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come within a day. Under the reported Iran-Oman terms, inbound ships would use Iranian waters and outbound ships Omani waters.
U.S. forces fired at the rudder of a Panama-flagged ship trying to run the blockade in the Gulf of Oman on Aug. 11. No one was hurt. Two days later Hegseth said the U.S. could keep the blockade in place indefinitely. Central Command said on Aug. 3 that the renewed blockade had redirected 44 ships, disabled two and boarded two.
The June memorandum lapsed on Aug. 17 with no final deal. Trump said he would not seek an extension and threatened to bomb Oman if it got in the way. Iran said it was negotiating shipping routes only with Oman. A day earlier Iran's army chief, Amir Hatami, offered a $30,000 bounty for killing or capturing invading U.S. soldiers, doubled if the attacker is a woman.
Brent gained 2.7% to $90.87 as the 60-day memorandum expired. Only three ships crossed Hormuz on Aug. 16, compared with about 130 a day before the war, according to Kpler. Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy said China had cut crude imports by 4 million barrels a day and predicted a move back toward $100 as it resumed buying.
U.S. forces said they struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island after Revolutionary Guard crews were seen preparing rockets that carry sea mines toward the strait. The Guard said the strike killed and wounded soldiers and civilians.
After a tanker leaving the strait was hit by three projectiles, the U.S. struck Revolutionary Guard targets and tankers owned by the National Iranian Oil Company under what it called a tanker-for-tanker policy. Iranian state media said a U.S. strike in Kuhestak hit a wedding, killing five people, including two children. On Sept. 3 Iran said it had targeted Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait and Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE.
Trump announced strikes near the strait in retaliation for a failed Iranian attempt to lay sea mines and for eight missiles fired at a U.S. base in Jordan, all of which he said were shot down. He warned that the biggest attack of all was still waiting.
Trump asked whether the Strait of Hormuz should be renamed "TRUMP STRAIT," now that it was, in his words, under U.S. control. The night before, he wrote that he could not care less whether Iran signed an agreement.
Heavy fighting broke out on Sept. 3 between the Houthis and forces of Yemen's internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council. About 100,000 Yemenis had been displaced by Sept. 13.
After Iran fired ballistic missiles toward U.S. Navy ships, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, sinking one, NBC News reported. The Revolutionary Guard said it hit three tankers crossing the strait without its approval. Only four ships passed through the strait on Sept. 5 and six on Sept. 6.
The Houthis attacked Abha International Airport, King Khalid Air Base and Aramco facilities in Abha and Jizan, injuring at least 73 people, the Saudi-led coalition said. Saudi Arabia struck back in the worst fighting since the two sides declared a truce four years earlier. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "the Iranian hand" was behind the attacks. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice on Sept. 10 urging strikes on the Houthis; Trump declined, Axios reported.
Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after further attempted missile attacks on a U.S. warship. It rejected Revolutionary Guard claims of hits on two destroyers. Jordan said it intercepted 18 of 20 ballistic missiles launched from Iran. The other two fell in uninhabited areas.
Brent rose above $100 on Sept. 9 for the first time since July, after U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian tankers and Houthi attacks hit Saudi energy sites. Goldman Sachs had raised its December Brent forecast by $5 to $85 and warned prices could top $120 in 2027 if Gulf output stayed 4 million barrels a day below prewar levels.
The Houthis captured Perim Island, also called Mayyun, at the southern entrance to the Red Sea on Sept. 11, along with the mainland town of Dhubab. They had taken the port of Mocha and the Hanish and Zuqar islands earlier in the week. An analyst told Al Jazeera the group now controlled Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline. Pakistan's defense minister warned that Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia could trigger the two countries' defense pact.
A U.S. official said Sept. 12 that the next round of Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome had been pushed to October. Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors were to meet at the State Department instead to work on carrying out the June framework. President Joseph Aoun, visiting Nabatieh, said there would be "no new negotiations with Israel at the moment." Israeli forces shelled the Douha area, the outskirts of Arnoun and Wadi al-Salouqi that day and used drone-dropped explosives to demolish houses, Al Jazeera reported. Israeli attacks around Nabatieh had killed at least 29 people in the previous two weeks, including 12 members of one family in Kfar Ramman.
Trump wrote that "the failing Nation of Iran" wanted a deal quickly and that he alone would decide whether the U.S. engaged. Crude rose more than 4% when markets reopened that Monday. Iran's security council chief rejected talks the next day.
Trump said on Sept. 14 that the U.S. was open to a deal, after weeks of saying it was too early. Oman postponed a planned meeting of Iran and Gulf states on reopening Hormuz; Iran said Saudi Arabia had asked for the delay. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said there would be no talks until Iran's conditions, including war reparations and the lifting of sanctions, were met. Iran also published a list of 77 ships it said had broken its rules in the strait.
Brent rose $3.21 to $107.82 after a drone attack from Iraq temporarily shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the kingdom's route to the Red Sea while Hormuz is disrupted. War-risk insurance for a Hormuz transit had climbed to 3% to 10% of a ship's hull value, from about 0.25% before the war, an analyst told Al Jazeera.
A U.N.-backed fact-finding mission on Iran said Sept. 17 it had found reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed war crimes in two strikes on Feb. 28, the first day of the war. The mission said a Tomahawk strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' school in Minab killed more than 150 people, about 120 of them children. It said a second strike scattered tungsten pellets over a sports complex in Lamerd and killed 22 civilians. CENTCOM has denied launching strikes on Lamerd that day. The panel, chaired by Bangladeshi jurist Sara Hossain, also documented Iran's crackdown on protesters, including assault rifle fire on crowds, and said more than 70 people faced imminent risk of execution. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the Iranian regime was the only party in the conflict that had committed war crimes.
The Washington Post reported Sept. 18 that at least 22 U.S. service members had died during the Iran war, four more than the 18 listed in the Pentagon's public casualty database. The Post cited U.S. officials and did not identify the dead. One official said some of the undisclosed deaths were not directly linked to combat, and another said three U.S. contractors had also died in the region. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the report "a complete LIE" in a post on X. The Pentagon declined to address the gap between the two counts, Reuters reported.
Saudi air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh at dawn on Sept. 19, the Saudi-led coalition said. Residents reported an explosion and black smoke near King Khalid International Airport. Saudi authorities reported no casualties or damage. Coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Maliki said the attacks had been thwarted. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group also struck an Aramco facility and sites in Bisha, Taif, Farasan and Yanbu with cruise missiles and drones. It was the first air raid alert in the Saudi capital since the fighting in Yemen escalated in July. The U.N. said the International Organization for Migration had counted 129,438 people displaced inside Yemen by Sept. 21, most of them in Taiz.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sept. 21 that all Iranian airlines would be shut out of the global aviation system on Sept. 23. The United States threatened secondary sanctions against foreign airports, fuel suppliers and ticketing companies that keep serving Iranian carriers. "If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel," Bessent said. The move follows a Sept. 8 Treasury action that designated 27 Iranian airlines and nine supporting companies in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Britain, Malaysia and Kazakhstan. Iran's commercial fleet already operates under decades of sanctions restricting its access to aircraft and spare parts.
Brent settled at $100.34 a barrel on Sept. 21, down $3.53, or 3.4%, after Trump said he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the U.N. General Assembly. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery fell $4.52, or 4.5%, to $95.78 before the contract expired. Tanker tracking showed Saudi Aramco loading about 14 million barrels for export. Saudi flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million barrels a day over six days, up from about 700,000 a day in August. Brent had settled at $107.82 on Sept. 14.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other Iranian officials on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 22. Qatari and Omani mediators shuttled between the two delegations. Trump said the meeting ran about three hours and that another would follow soon. Iran tied any deal to lifting the U.S. naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets and ending strikes on forces allied with Tehran, and said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if those conditions were met. Hours earlier Trump asked the General Assembly whether he should "annihilate" the Islamic Republic, and the Iranian delegation walked out.
President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal on Oct. 1, saying the plan would not open the Strait of Hormuz widely enough. Trump said Iran was "ready to fold up" and that the war would end right after the November midterm elections. The Pentagon sent three naval groups toward the Middle East with more than 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines aboard, and CNBC reported that a third aircraft carrier was being ordered to the region, which would put three carriers there by late October. Diplomacy had stalled days earlier. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered an Iranian delegation to leave the U.S. a day ahead of schedule on Sept. 30 after technical talks, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had received U.S. feedback on a seven-day ceasefire plan. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Trump could not decide between war and talks.
Trump wrote on Truth Social at 1:54 p.m. ET on Oct. 1 that he had said numerous times it would take four to six weeks to get rid of the Iran nuclear threat and that he did it in one night. He added that the rest of the time was to make sure it stayed that way. He posted hours after rejecting Iran's latest ceasefire proposal. CNN examined the claim on Oct. 2 and reported that Trump had repeatedly applied the four-to-six-week estimate to the war itself, which was then in its eighth month.
Brent crude settled at $102.31 a barrel on Oct. 1, up $4.28, or 4.4%, after reports that the U.S. was ordering a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East. China's suspension of petroleum product exports for October added to the gain. The December contract had taken over as the front month a day earlier at $98.03, so the settlement carried Brent back above $100. The gain held only briefly. Brent settled at $102.25 on Oct. 2 after European governments agreed, under U.S. pressure, to release 50 million barrels of diesel, with another 50 million barrels of crude from International Energy Agency members. WTI settled at $92.87 on Oct. 1 and $91.11 on Oct. 2.
Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Oct. 4 that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until seven conditions drawn from the Islamabad memorandum were met. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said reopening the strait was Tehran's main focus, while U.S. negotiators kept pressing on Iran's nuclear program. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would answer any new U.S. military action. The strait has been largely closed for seven months, and about one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas normally moves through it. Shipments have recovered anyway. Al Jazeera reported that Middle East crude and fuel exports ran at 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels a day in September, above the prewar average of about 18 million, with 40% of crude now bypassing Hormuz.
Yemen's internationally recognized government said on Oct. 5 that its forces had retaken the Red Sea port of Mocha and seized positions in the Dhubab district of Taiz governorate, cutting roads leading to the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The Homeland Shield Forces and the Giants Brigades led the advance. Saudi coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Maliki said 100 fighter jets supported the operation and that the coalition had destroyed hundreds of Houthi targets. The Houthis denied losing Mocha. Deputy governor Fuad Sinan released a video from the city on the evening of Oct. 5 saying his men were roaming its streets. Houthi forces also claimed attacks on the Jazan and Najran airports near the Yemeni border, and Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority said three people were wounded.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on the evening of Oct. 5 that the group had fired ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and at an Aramco refinery in Rabigh on the Red Sea coast. He said the Riyadh strike disrupted air traffic and that a fire broke out at the refinery. Explosions were reported in Riyadh that night. Saree also claimed attacks on Abha airport, Khamis Mushait air base and a camp in Asir. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes and said the kingdom reserved its right to defend its territory, resources and citizens. CBS News reported that the Houthis had also hit a pumping station on the East-West crude pipeline on Oct. 4, with accounts differing on whether flows stopped.
Trump wrote on Truth Social at 12:32 p.m. ET on Oct. 5 that the Strait of Hormuz was no longer what was driving up gasoline prices, because record numbers of barrels were coming out almost daily. He blamed refineries instead, citing Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants and plant closures in California. The post reversed months of Truth Social messages that tied U.S. pump prices to the strait. The Group of Seven had agreed days earlier to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, and Brent was trading near $100.
President Donald Trump said on Oct. 8 that the United States would not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Writing on Truth Social, he said Washington was having "productive discussions" with Tehran, that the U.S. naval blockade of Iran would stay in place and that Iran would not have a nuclear weapon. Brent crude eased from its session high after the post and settled at $104.28, up 4.1%. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran was reviewing the U.S. response to its plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and would reply within days. Vice President JD Vance said this month that ending the war requires a meaningful reduction in Iran's uranium enrichment capacity.
At 12:17 p.m. ET on Oct. 8, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States was having "productive discussions" with Iran and would not attack it at any time before the midterm elections on Nov. 3. He said the naval blockade would remain in place, that oil was moving through the Strait of Hormuz with none of it going to or from Iran, and that Iran would not have a nuclear weapon. Brent crude had been up about 5% during the session on Iranian tanker attacks and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane. It eased after the post and settled at $104.28, up 4.1%. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran was reviewing the U.S. response to its proposal for reopening the strait.
Brent crude settled at $104.28 a barrel on Oct. 8, up 4.1%, after Iran intensified its attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled a recovery in Gulf oil flows. West Texas Intermediate settled at $91.49, up 3.6%. Prices eased from the session high after Trump said on Truth Social that the United States would not strike Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Hurricane Isaias, the first Atlantic hurricane of the year, added to the move. Offshore producers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico shut in more than 60% of crude output, and nearly 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity sat in the storm's projected path. Tanker freight rates rose, which raises the delivered cost of fuel.
A Houthi missile attack on King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh killed at least 12 people and wounded at least 309 on Oct. 10, Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation said. The dead included four Saudis, two Bangladeshis and one citizen each of the United States, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Sudan and Egypt. Flights were suspended while officials assessed the damage, and a projectile fell near King Fahd International Airport in Dammam. The Saudi-led coalition spokesman, Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki, called the attack a war crime and said the coalition would respond decisively. The head of the Houthi media office said the group had shut the airport down, and the Houthis have declared Saudi airspace a military zone. Trump called the attack terrible and said he was weighing whether the United States should join the fight against the Houthis.
Attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level of the war in October. At least 12 vessels were struck in the week that ended Oct. 5, and the UKMTO recorded 15 more attacks from Oct. 6 to Oct. 14, 11 of them in the final four days. The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center rated the threat to merchant shipping "severe" on Oct. 11, its second-highest level. Crude transit fell with it. Kpler put flows through the strait at an average 8.5 million barrels a day in the week that ended Oct. 7, about 40% below normal, and at 2.9 million barrels on Oct. 11, the lowest day of the month. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Iranian forces had been striking five or six vessels a night. CENTCOM said its blockade had turned back 135 ships and destroyed 10 Iran-linked tankers since mid-July.
A Houthi missile struck an administrative building at Saudi Aramco's headquarters complex in Dhahran on Oct. 13 and started a fire that was later put out, an official at Saudi Arabia's energy ministry told the state news agency SPA. No deaths were reported at the site. The attack came hours after the Saudi-led coalition ordered civilians to leave the Yemeni Oil Company's al-Sabah station in Sanaa, which the coalition said the Houthis used to store missiles and drones, and then struck oil sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and at Ras Isa port. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree called Aramco sites "a legitimate target" and told employees and civilians near them to leave. Saudi air defenses intercepted missiles aimed at Riyadh, and falling debris injured four people and damaged 15 homes, the Civil Defense said. Brent crude settled at $105.69 that day, down 0.9%.
At 12:04 p.m. ET on Oct. 13, hours before a Houthi missile hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Houthis were "behaving very badly" and were striking Saudi infrastructure to drive up energy prices before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He said they were probably acting at Iran's direction and called Iran a failing nation with no navy and no air force. Trump added that he was not a candidate in the election and would be there after it. Al Jazeera reported the line as a suggestion of renewed U.S. military action once the vote had passed. Five days earlier he had said the United States would not strike Iran before Nov. 3.
The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank in the Strait of Hormuz after it was struck and set on fire on Oct. 13, Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority confirmed. All 21 crew members were evacuated without injury. A second Singapore-registered ship, GFS Giselle, was hit on Oct. 14, took hull damage and reached a safe anchorage under its own power with its 22 crew. Iran said, without evidence, that GFS Pride had struck a mine. The trade publication gCaptain called it the second confirmed sinking of a large oceangoing ship in the war, after the Safeen Prestige. The same day, U.S. Central Command said American forces and regional partners "clearly control the Strait of Hormuz" and had helped move more than 19 million barrels of crude through it the day before. The International Maritime Organization has counted more than 100 maritime security incidents since the war began, with at least 24 seafarers killed.
The State Department on Oct. 21 ordered nonessential staff and the families of U.S. government employees to leave the embassy in Riyadh and its consulates, citing Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and infrastructure. A new travel alert warned that the hostilities "have the potential to escalate rapidly." U.S. personnel now need special permission to use any Saudi airport. Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport had been closed since the Oct. 10 attack that killed 12 people. The embassy was badly damaged at the start of the Iran war and had run on a skeleton staff for months. The same day, Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said debris from an intercepted drone killed two people at an Aramco-operated oil field in the southeast, and Saudia and Flynas resumed some flights. Lufthansa and Air France canceled Riyadh service through mid-November.
An attack late on Oct. 21 on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed two people, a Saudi citizen and an Indian national, and injured eight, Saudi Arabia's Civil Aviation Authority said. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed it, along with a strike on an Aramco facility in Yanbu that he said caused a fire and one on the Defense Ministry in Riyadh, for which he offered no evidence. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called Houthi attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia "totally unacceptable." Yemen's government said Houthi rallies and mobilization programs were now legitimate military targets and told residents of Houthi-held areas to stay away from them. Aramco's chief executive, Amin Nasser, said the East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, now carries 7 million barrels a day, up from 2 million.
Iran's state television said seven oil tankers were damaged overnight into Oct. 22. Citing the Revolutionary Guard navy, it said four were hit while transferring oil in the northern Persian Gulf and caught fire, and three struck naval mines west of Hormuz and were immobilized. It gave no names, flags or casualty figures. If verified, it would be the most vessels damaged in a single day since the war began on Feb. 28. The Guard threatened U.S. bases in the region if American escorts continued. Lloyd's List Intelligence said operators willing to take the risk were running oil through the strait at night, in a U.S.-protected lane near the Omani coast with location systems and phones switched off, then transferring it to tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman. IMF PortWatch counted four transits on Oct. 18, against a prewar average of 85 a day. The same day as the tanker claims, Iranian television showed a new version of the Arash drone with a 100-kilogram warhead, twice the old one.
At 11:40 a.m. ET on Oct. 22, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election." He said Iran was inventing reports of attacks and mines while more oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, accused its government of killing protesters, putting the dead at 75,000 in under seven months, and repeated that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon. That morning he told reporters the United States was "not negotiating" with Iran and that "something one way or another will happen, fairly soon," adding that "most people seem to think it's after the election." The New York Times reported the same day that the U.S. and Israel had drawn up plans for a short, intensive round of strikes after Nov. 3. Brent settled up 4% that afternoon.
Brent crude for December delivery rose 4% on Oct. 22 to settle at $113.17 a barrel, its biggest gain in about two weeks, and the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, settled at $99.47, up 2.4%, Bloomberg reported. Traders cited the attacks in Saudi Arabia, the order for U.S. diplomats to leave the kingdom and Iran's claim that it had hit four tankers. AP said Brent had traded between $97 and $112 earlier in October. Bloomberg reported in the same story that Hormuz exports had climbed back to prewar levels. "Continued kinetic activity and the risk of renewed escalation following the midterms are keeping a floor under prices," said Rebecca Babin, an energy trader. Brent is up more than 80% this year. The 10-year Treasury yield, 3.97% before the war, stood at 5.05%.
Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Oct. 23, up $3.55, or 3.1%, its highest close since April 29, after a series of Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure, Reuters reported. A day earlier Saudi Aramco had evacuated its Dhahran headquarters. West Texas Intermediate settled at $103.27, up 3.8%. Brent gained 6% for the week. The UAE environment ministry also reported an oil spill from an unidentified tanker off Umm Al Quwain the same day.
Trump endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Truth Social post at 6:58 p.m. ET on Oct. 25, two days before Israel’s election. He addressed the Israeli public, praised Netanyahu’s leadership, cited the U.S. military campaign against Iran and told voters to back him so that "we have to finish the job that we started." Netanyahu held up the endorsement in a televised appearance on Oct. 25 and suggested the two leaders could resume the war on Iran if he won, saying he had already instructed the Mossad and the Israeli military to bring down the government in Tehran, Reuters reported. Trump had endorsed him once before, on Oct. 18.
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on Oct. 26, Al Jazeera reported. Their three countries are the signatories of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, and the four governments agreed to continue talks on regional security. The visit came as Trump weighed new strikes to break the deadlock. Iran wants the U.S. naval blockade of its southern ports lifted and a return to the June memorandum of understanding, which Washington has refused.
Egypt’s House of Representatives on Oct. 26 authorized President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to provide military support to Saudi Arabia if Riyadh requests it. A parliamentary statement said el-Sisi could undertake the measures necessary to help the kingdom defend itself. The chamber, chaired by Speaker Hisham Badawi, acted after Houthi missile and drone attacks on Riyadh’s international airport and on Aramco facilities disrupted flights and oil exports. No Egyptian forces have been committed. El-Sisi has said any Egyptian action would be limited to protecting Saudi territory and borders rather than attacking Yemen, and Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said after a visit to Riyadh that Cairo still favors a diplomatic settlement. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged maximum restraint and warned that the fighting could spiral out of control.
The Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest at 550,000 barrels a day, with a ballistic missile on Oct. 27, Reuters reported. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm a strike. Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with the matter, reported that a fire near the Ras Tanura terminal was contained in the early hours. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles fired toward Riyadh the same day. Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, ports and oil sites since September have broken the 2022 U.N.-brokered truce.
Israelis voted on Oct. 27 in an election fought largely over the war with Iran. With 84% of ballots counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc was on track for 54 seats and the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot for 49, Al Jazeera reported. Arab parties were on track for 17. A government needs 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Neither bloc has a path to 61 without the Arab parties, and both leaders have refused to govern with them. The final tally is expected by Friday and official results are due Nov. 4, after which President Isaac Herzog nominates a candidate who has up to 42 days to form a government. Netanyahu’s cabinet stays on as a caretaker if no one succeeds. CNBC reported on Oct. 28 that Israeli bonds and the shekel fell as the count left both blocs short of a majority.
Houthi forces struck Aden international airport on Oct. 28 after telling people to leave it, Reuters reported, citing Yemeni government officials. Residents said they heard an explosion near the airport, and air traffic stopped after the attack. A Houthi spokesperson said the warning was issued because a Saudi cargo plane at the airport was delivering weapons. Saudi officials did not immediately comment. Aden is the seat of Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Yemen’s Ministry of Transport said Houthi forces fired two ballistic missiles at the same airport on Oct. 24 and called that the fourth such attack of the month.
At a Halloween event at Mar-a-Lago on Oct. 31, Trump said the United States had no fixed timetable for a deal with Iran. "We're not in that much of a hurry from the standpoint that we've knocked out their navy," he said. On Nov. 1, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran had received a letter from Vice President JD Vance seeking to revive talks, had not yet replied, and was waiting for "the Americans' final response" to its own proposal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the same day that Iran was ready for "both defense and diplomacy" as Iranian negotiators met Qatari officials on a possible settlement. Defense Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi promised an "immediate, effective and proportionate response" to any attack. UKMTO reported that a projectile struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Nov. 1.
Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile and a drone aimed at the kingdom's southern region on Nov. 1, and coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki said Saudi forces had struck "vital resources" in Yemen's Dhamar and Hudaydah governorates. Houthi media reported a strike on oil infrastructure in Bajil district, Hudaydah. On the ground, government-aligned forces repelled a Houthi advance into al-Maqatirah district of Lahij on Oct. 30, then lost elevated ground there to Houthi fighters on Nov. 1, and retook Jabal Huwayshiyan in Jawf. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that the Houthis were trying to take terrain leading toward Aden.
Explosions hit Iran’s Qeshm and Hengam islands and the mainland area around Bandar Abbas late on Nov. 2, Iranian state media reported, hours before U.S. voters went to the polls. A U.S. official told The Associated Press the strikes targeted Iranian crews firing surface-to-air missiles at American forces in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials called the operation defensive and said it was meant to limit Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping. No casualties were reported. Officials told The Wall Street Journal the strikes belonged to a series carried out quietly in recent weeks so that Washington would not appear to be returning to full combat. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it captured two U.S. drones south of Qeshm using electronic warfare and destroyed an MQ-9 east of the strait. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said Iranian forces were at their highest level of defensive readiness.
Houthi fighters captured all of Al Maqatirah district in Lahj governorate and advanced to within 80 km (50 miles) of Aden, four military sources told Reuters on Nov. 2. Fighting was underway at a camp at the entrance to Tur al-Bahah district, and government forces fell back toward it. Reuters said the Houthis had not been that close to the seat of Yemen’s internationally recognized government since the early months of the 2015 war. The advance threatens the main road between Aden and Taiz. The Houthis have taken ground along the Red Sea coast and near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait since September, and they cut the main road south of Taiz in early October. More than 100,000 people have been displaced by the fighting around Taiz, Reuters said.
Oil fell on Nov. 2 after Araghchi said, in an interview posted on his Telegram channel, that a proposal being discussed in Qatar could reopen the Strait of Hormuz "within two days" if the United States met several conditions. He said no direct talks with Washington were under way. AP reported Brent down 4.2% at $108.68 a barrel and WTI down 4.2% at $99.74 in morning trading; Brent hit its lowest level in two weeks. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan estimated wholesale gasoline and diesel had dropped about 16 cents a gallon and said the U.S. average could fall below $4 within a week. A year earlier Brent traded near $65.
Trump posted on Truth Social at 8:08 p.m. ET on Nov. 2 that oil prices were "dropping like a rock," down almost $10 a barrel, because people believed there would be no war with Iran. He wrote that Iran wanted a settlement as soon as possible and that it could happen. Brent had settled at $116.72 on Oct. 23. It closed at $103.60 on Nov. 3, its lowest settlement since Oct. 7, Reuters reported. The post went up hours after U.S. aircraft struck Iranian air defenses near the Strait of Hormuz and a day before the midterm elections.
Democrats won control of the House and the Senate in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, flipping Senate seats in Texas, South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan and Kansas. Al Jazeera reported that Democrats had won 228 House seats and led in 34 more, and had taken 54 Senate seats with one further race leaning their way. Republicans held 220 House seats and 53 Senate seats before the vote. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on Nov. 4 that the war in Iran had cost his party the election. "But everyone knows why we lost," he wrote, saying Trump had made the same point the night before. The Associated Press reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson would not seek reelection as Republican leader. Trump said in October that he would not order new strikes on Iran before the midterms.
Brent settled at $94.62 a barrel on Nov. 4, down 8.7% from $103.60 the day before, after Democrats won control of Congress and Vice President JD Vance said the Iran war had cost his party the election. West Texas Intermediate settled at $88.12, down 8.3%. Brent traded as much as 10% lower during the session. Bloomberg reported that trend-following funds cut their Brent long positions from about 73% to 55%, deepening the selloff. The settlement left Brent about $22 below its Oct. 23 close of $116.72. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to near prewar levels, Bloomberg reported, and JPMorgan said the global oil market moved back into surplus in October with an overhang of 1.4 million barrels a day. Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran.
U.S. Central Command announced on Nov. 7 that it had created a task force to stop Iran moving weapons and sanctioned goods across its land borders, extending a blockade that has closed Iranian ports since April. CENTCOM said Task Force Iron Gate, based in Tampa, Florida, would work with other U.S. agencies to prevent the movement of advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illegal revenue streams across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea. Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, said the task force would reinforce “the success of our ironclad blockade against Iran at sea.” The U.S. military says the naval blockade has redirected 144 commercial vessels through the end of October and kept about $25 billion of Iranian crude from being sold. China, Iran’s largest trading partner, has shifted much of its trade with Tehran onto land routes, including rail across Central Asia. Iranian officials played down the new task force.
A Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District was damaged early on Nov. 8 by falling debris after air defenses intercepted missiles fired from Yemen, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said, describing an “attempted attack” on the building. The ministry reported minor damage and no casualties. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired toward Riyadh, two cruise missiles over the capital and the southern region, and a drone. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had targeted Aramco facilities, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and an Aramco site at Abqaiq. Bloomberg described the attack as a rare strike on the capital’s financial hub, which houses banks and the offices of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. A Houthi attack on Riyadh’s main airport on Oct. 10 killed at least 13 people and wounded more than 300, Al Jazeera reported.
President Trump met Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at the White House on Nov. 9, days after the Qatari leader visited Tehran. The meeting lasted just under an hour and was closed to reporters, White House officials said, and Vice President JD Vance met him earlier the same day. Trump later told reporters that Iran “militarily is effectively over” and that Washington was keeping the status quo at the request of Iran’s neighbors, naming Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not believe a diplomatic breakthrough was imminent and rejected the conditions Iran has set for opening talks. Qatar has been carrying proposals between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude settled 5.85% lower the same day.
Brent crude settled down $5.75, or 5.85%, at $92.57 a barrel on Nov. 9, after Trump played down the chance of renewed strikes on Iran and posted that Gulf states preferred to keep the naval blockade and the new land blockade in place. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled down $3.98, or 4.38%, at $86.85. Prices kept sliding after the settlement, with Brent down more than $7 a barrel. It was Brent’s lowest settlement since late August. Some analysts said the market was returning to oversupply as high prices cut demand, and JPMorgan put the global surplus at about 1.4 million barrels a day in October. Crude in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 279.5 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982, according to Energy Department data.
At 4:29 p.m. ET on Nov. 9, hours after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, Trump posted that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait would prefer the status quo, meaning a continuation of the naval blockade and the new Operation Iron Gate, by land and sea. He wrote that all had agreed Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, that the United States was locked and loaded should anything change in the Middle East, and that such a change seemed “quite unlikely.” The post named the blockade and Operation Iron Gate as the policy Washington would keep in place rather than resuming strikes. Brent crude settled down 5.85% at $92.57 a barrel the same day, its lowest close since late August, as traders read the post and Trump’s remarks to reporters as a sign that fighting would not resume soon.